Christian Bueger

Category Archives: News


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Strategic Foresight Diplomacy in Action – The EU-Indonesia dialogue.

It was a pleasure to contribute to an innovative EU-Indonesia track 1.5 dialogue this week.

Track 1.5 dialogues are a conventional tool in diplomacy. In Southeast Asia they are even one of the main modes of diplomatic negotiations – known as the ‘ASEAN way’. Mixing participants from ministries of foreign affairs, governmental research organizations and independent think tanks, their primarily objective is usually trust and confidence building, developing interpersonal networks, but also epistemic alignments: open exchanges on problem interpretation, current and planned policies, recent developments and plans. Chatham house rules are usually applied and participants are asked to make frank remarks or ask critical questions, which could otherwise violate diplomatic conventions. If and how such events are effective and trickle down to formal track 1.0 diplomatic negotiations is often debated, but in the end very difficult to measure.

This week I participated in the EU-Indonesia track 1.5 dialogue. Mainly concerned about the implications of the recent comprehensive trade treaty, the event was noteworthy as the EU tried out a new format: strategic foresight. In what might be described as “foresight diplomacy”, the focus of the event was on exchanges on foresight expertise.


Strategic foresight is a planning approach that has become increasingly popular in the defense sector, economic policy making, but also the commercial sector. As a methodology it is focused on the management of risk by identifying mega trends and scenarios. Contrary to forecasting, multiple futures are anticipated and evaluated for their plausibility in participative processes. The goal of planning is preparedness and resilience. Both the OECD and NATO have developed important guidelines for carrying out such analyses and the EU and Indonesia, but also many others, have developed foresight capacities in their diplomatic services.

Foresight diplomacy is focused on the systematic exchange not only of experience, but also the outcomes of foresight exercises. Comparisons between meta trends, scenarios and resulting gaps and planning priorities serve as the basis for not only epistemic alignment, but also identifying common interests and collective action space.

According to the organizers the event that I attended was one of the first in which the EU, led by the foresight unit in the European External Action Service and its partner – Forward Global –, tested this approach. While there’s a risk that foresight diplomacy dialogues become methods driven and technocratic, they might be extremely useful to overcome the short-termism and news focus that too often prevails at track 1.5 dialogues. I look forward to following how the EU continues to advance this innovative form of diplomacy.


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Joining forces with the Charles Telfair Centre in Mauritius

Professional news: I have joined the Mauritius based Charles Telfair Centre as an Associate Fellow from February this year. The Center is one of the leading cross-cutting think tanks in the Western Indian Ocean working on the challenges of Small Island Developing States and regional governance issues.

In my role, I will support the center’s ambitions in the area of regional ocean governance and maritime security. We will focus in particular on how maritime security governance structures in the region can be strengthened, persistent blue crimes and safety risks can be encountered, and increasing geopolitical risks can be mitigated. One focus area will also be the future governance of the Chagos archipelago. We also hope to form relevant expert networks within and beyond the region.

Do not hesitate to get in touch if you want to discuss opportunities for collaboration.


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Looking back at 2025

Time for a brief look back at 2025. Here is what made this year special:

  1. Playing Tejo, an ancient throwing game and the national sport of Colombia, in Bogota with Andres Julian Trujillo Rosero after an intense strategic foresight event with the Colombian Navy.
  2. Wandering the streets of New York in the early mornings after a non-stop flight from Singapore, staying awake to be fresh for my briefing at the UN Security Council’s high-level debate on maritime security.
  3. Receiving a crystal ball as a gift in Singapore, which significantly improved my approach to strategic foresight.
  4. Meeting the pink pigeon, Mauritius’ national endangered bird, in one of the national parks while conducting research on maritime security in the Western Indian Ocean.
  5. Seeing our edited volume on global ocean regions in print completing an amazing intellectual journey with Elizabeth Mendenhall, Bec Strating and others.
  6. Recognizing how many varieties of tuna dishes one can make while visiting The Maldives National University, thanks to Athaulla (‘Atho’) Rasheed.
  7. Launching my new newsletter ‘Turbulent Seas’, although fewer issues were published in 2025 than originally envisioned. Watch that space!
  8. Enjoying the Abu Dhabi sunset while sipping a cold brew with Brendon J. Cannon after a presentation at TRENDS Research & Advisory.
  9. Seeing my first article published in French, though this would not have been possible without great translators at Diplomatie.
  10. Visiting the Taj Mahal ahead of the National Maritime Foundation- NMF’s Indo-Pacific Regional Dialogue.
  11. Recognizing that I have given close to 60 talks in 2025, including briefings to the European Council, the European Parliament, and NATO’s Operation Policy Committee. 2026 will be focused on writing!

To everyone I had the privilege of meeting in 2025: thank you for making it extraordinary. Excited to see what 2026 brings…


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Talk at Oslo Maritime Security Seminar

Yesterday, I attended the 20th Oslo Maritime Security Seminar – the Nordic’s major industry event on the topic.

With more than 300 attendees, highlights included discussions on grey zone strategies, the shadow fleet, and the challenges linked to growing incidents of GNSS spoofing and jamming. I was invited to discuss the state of maritime security governance and presented six observations. Here in brief:

  • The agenda is evolving rapidly—from terrorism to piracy to smuggling to today’s grey zone threats (cyber, infrastructure attacks, state provocations).
  • Maritime security is now multidimensional—we’re thinking beyond surface and include subsea infrastructure, space, and cyber. That’s creating new governance complexities.
  • A new wave of privatization is underway, driven by robotics, new sensors, AI and data fusion. It’s democratizing maritime domain awareness but also creating new dependencies.
  • There’s a “coastguard revolution”—navies are stepping back from constabulary work, coastguards are stepping up, and this has major implications for maritime investment.
  • Regional cooperation is intensifying as neighbors work closer together. But so is the risk of fragmented regional governance.
  • The UN is gaining real momentum on maritime security—three high-level meetings this year, 120+ states in agreement.

You can read the script of me intervention here.

A personal highlight: Taking the stage at a comedy club – the venue of the seminar – clearly opened new career ideas.


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New newsletter on coast guards

In a new edition of my newsletter Turbulent Seas I discuss the growing importance of coast guards in maritime security and their role in international cooperation.

Given the changing security environment and the fact that navies are more and more focused on traditional roles coast guards assume a wider spectrum of tasks including in critical maritime infrastructure protection and responding to grey zone tactics.


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Term begins in Copenhagen

This week the term begins at the Københavns Universitet – University of Copenhagen. It’s always a highlight in the academic calendar, filled with plenty of meetings.

This term I have the pleasure of teaching a seminar on global ocean politics. The course is designed to familiarize students with the key challenges facing our oceans—from declining ocean health and the intricacies of blue economy management to maritime security—and how these issues are addressed by global policy professionals.

The oceans should form a core part of International Relations curricula, and I’m glad that’s the case in Copenhagen.

I also look forward to working with several master’s students, supervising a range of exciting thesis projects, many of which focus on maritime issues.

After considerable travel over the summer, including trips to Singapore, Taiwan, Mauritius, and the Maldives, it will be great to catch up with office colleagues and develop our shared projects.


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Visit to Taipei, talk at Ketagalan Forum

Critical maritime infrastructure protection is a global concern, as nations worldwide face the challenge of ensuring the resilience of subsea cables and offshore infrastructure. This week, I visited Taipei to discuss how subsea data cables and offshore green energy installations can be better protected in the island’s waters. I participated in the Ketagalan Forum and met with local security experts and policy makers.

Over recent years, the island has faced a series of accidents that led to cuts in vital data cables. This has made protection a top policy priority, raising questions about how lessons from the Baltic Sea can be adapted to Taiwan.

Yet, the concern should not be with data cables alone. Like the Baltic Sea region, the waters off Taiwan have enormous wind energy potential that could, in essence, fully decarbonize the industry. However, expanding offshore wind will require attention to security concerns.

To enhance resilience, Taiwan will need to draw on international best practices: improve its connectivity, enhance surveillance of its maritime domain, criminalize tampering with infrastructure, strengthen coordination with industry, strengthen repair capacity, and engage in cable diplomacy by working closely with regional neighbors, including Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and ASEAN members, but also global partners such as the EU. Regional coast guard cooperation and information sharing, as well as joint development of surveillance technology, could be vital components of such partnerships.

While my visit was short, it provided a great opportunity to meet colleagues, make new friends, and gain a first impression of Taipei.


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New Newsletter on maritime security and ocean politics

I have launched Turbulent Seas – my new newsletter published on LinkedIn. In this new format, I will provide monthly deep dives into global maritime security developments from around the world.

In the first edition I examine recent developments in subsea data cable protection. Cable protection has become a key feature of maritime security and a lot of activities have developed over the last years.

In upcoming editions I will reflect on key developments in regions, such as the Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean, but also maritime security solutions, such as coast guard cooperation, or information sharing.

Follow the newsletter here.


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New Policy Report on EU-GCC cooperation in maritime security

For effective maritime security governance, regional organizations have to work closely to ensure synergies and avoid overlap. In a new policy report published with Trends Research & Advisory (Dubai) I discuss the role of the European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council in the Western Indian Ocean.

Drawing on a brief discussion of how the Western Indian Ocean faces complex, evolving threats—from traditional piracy to armed attacks on shipping, climate-induced risks and vulnerability of critical infrastructure, I show how both the EU and GCC are major players in regional maritime security, but operate within a fragmented institutional landscape of overlapping mandates. Rather than consolidating institutions, success lies in embracing “adaptive patchwork governance” that leverages diversity while enhancing coordination.


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New book on global ocean regions

Our new book titled the ‘Politics of Global Ocean Regions’ is now available through Springer. Edited with Elizabeth Mendenhall and Rebecca Strating, the book advances a novel analytical framework for studying the politics of global ocean regions, shedding new light on the complex interactions in ocean spaces such as the Arctic, Indo-Pacific, and Indian Ocean.

We want to show that the oceans are not just vast expanses of blue, but dynamic political spaces shaped by complex regional dynamics. This work is the outcome of a three year research collaboration with leading experts across different ocean regions. It includes chapters by by William Waqavakatoga, Joanne Wallis, Samuel Bashfield, Leandra R. Gonçalves, Ana Flávia Barros-Platiau, Carlos Henrique Tomé, Carina Costa de Oliveira, and Andreas Østhagen, as well as by the three editors.

Written for students, researchers, and analysts interested in regionalism and ocean governance, this comprehensive study:

  • Presents a novel framework for analyzing ocean regions as political spaces
  • Examines the emergence, organization, and effects of global ocean regions
  • Demonstrates the importance and complexity of regional maritime politics
  • Provides essential insights for understanding the governance of global commons

🔗 Available now: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-88984-4 (Contact me, if you cannot access via your institution)

I hope this work will serve as an essential resource for understanding how diverse and complex regional maritime politics shape our world, providing a valuable framework to guide future research in this critical field.