The Gulf region is in trouble. Tensions are mounting and maritime security is degrading. The Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz and the Western Indian Ocean are volatile. What are the solutions on the table, and how can the EU contribute?

To find out, I attended the IISS Manama Dialogue in my new role as an expert in the EnMAR+ project. Some observations:

The conflicts and instabilities in the Eastern Mediterranean, Ethiopia, Yemen, Somalia and Sudan are increasingly seen as an interconnected conflict space.

Minilateral configurations provide a new layer of regional diplomacy and collective security, reducing dependence on former naval hegemons. The Mecca pact and the Regional 4 are the most direct expression.

Yet this does not mean an erosion of more classical regional integration. Indeed, the Gulf Cooperation Council is assuming a stronger role.

To establish sustainable maritime security governance in the Red Sea and Gulf, the two regional seas conventions, but also institutions such as the Red Sea Council, could play a stronger role.

Whether the Combined Maritime Forces, the major US-led naval mechanism in the region, can continue to fulfil its role is currently uncertain.

What about the EU?

The EU is a strong contributor to regional maritime security through its two naval operations, Aspides and Atalanta, and significant capacity-building support, such as the Red Sea crisis project. The five EU member states that had speaking roles in Manama (Greece, Germany, France, the Netherlands and Finland) reiterated that commitment. Greece’s prime minister called for more support for Aspides, and the Dutch chief of defence argued that the EU contribution should be enhanced.

The EU should not be judged on its military contribution alone. Strengthening EU-GCC maritime security cooperation at the technical level, and assisting states such as Yemen or Eritrea, is equally vital.

Much of the regional maritime security future will hinge on what solution is found for the governance of the Strait of Hormuz. That in turn depends on whether and how the US continues the war with Iran, which is unpredictable. The current expectation is that a new cycle of escalation is coming soon.

The Strait of Hormuz is developing into a protracted conflict with dramatic impact on the world economy and international stability. How is the situation evolving?

Last week I had the pleasure to attend and speak at two events discussing the crisis. The annual conference of Trends in Abu Dhabi reviewed the evolving regional security context under the concept of “sustainable security”. At the third Geneva Maritime Roundtable, I co-organized with the Geneva Center for Security Policy and Zoltan Turbek, we discussed the broader strategic implications of the crisis.

Takeaways from both events:

There is growing expectation that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is far from a timely resolution, and that negotiating a governance regime for passage will take 2-3 years, if not longer.

This means that some limited shipping will go through the Strait, but that we will see ongoing attacks, with rising environmental damage and long-term food and energy insecurity.

The broader global consequences of the crisis are increasingly felt. Rising food and energy costs are one of the factors in growing instability in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region, for instance.

While Iran and Oman have reached a preliminary and time-limited agreement for organizing passage through the Strait, this does not yet have full regional and global support.

Negotiation and support efforts, such as the IMO’s evacuation plan, the UN Secretary-General’s fertilizer initiative, or the plans for protecting shipping through an international naval mission led by France and the UK, have not progressed in a meaningful way.

A key problem is that international actors are divided over the interpretation of freedom of navigation. Some countries take a strong stance, as exemplified in the EU’s recent “No fees/no tolls” pledge, while others favour pragmatic interpretations that would grant littoral states some control over passage and financial benefits from it.

Stronger support and better dialogue formats are needed to advance the discussion on the laws of naval warfare, the responsible use of new weapon technologies, and the principles of governing strategic waterways. The UN Security Council will be vital in these efforts, but broader, more inclusive forums that can integrate, for instance, the transport industry and seafarer representatives will also be needed.