Christian Bueger


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2nd Chagos Dialogue: The future of the archipelago

The future of the Chagos Archipelago is one of the prime questions in the governance of the Western Indian Ocean. Although Mauritius and the UK, in collaboration with the US and India as security partners, have reached an agreement, it has yet to be finalized.

On 5 November, I had the pleasure of participating in the second Chagos Dialogue, organized by the Charles Telfair Centre based in Mauritius. Held under the theme “Biodiversity, Heritage, Politics: Plausible Futures for the Chagos Archipelago,” the event format brings together experts from universities and think tanks to discuss the vital issues involved in the transfer of sovereignty from the UK to Mauritius. The goal is to develop a scientific base for policy making and ensure that critical issues are openly discussed.

While the first edition (held in July 2026) focused on marine protection, options for resettlement, maritime security, and geopolitics, the second edition focused on the potential economy of the archipelago and the protection of Chagossian heritage.

A third expert-level meeting is planned for early 2027 to prepare for a meeting involving officials and regional representatives in late 2027.


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Manama Dialogue in Bahrain

The Gulf region is in trouble. Tensions are mounting and maritime security is degrading. The Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz and the Western Indian Ocean are volatile. What are the solutions on the table, and how can the EU contribute?

To find out, I attended the IISS Manama Dialogue in my new role as an expert in the EnMAR+ project. Some observations:

The conflicts and instabilities in the Eastern Mediterranean, Ethiopia, Yemen, Somalia and Sudan are increasingly seen as an interconnected conflict space.

Minilateral configurations provide a new layer of regional diplomacy and collective security, reducing dependence on former naval hegemons. The Mecca pact and the Regional 4 are the most direct expression.

Yet this does not mean an erosion of more classical regional integration. Indeed, the Gulf Cooperation Council is assuming a stronger role.

To establish sustainable maritime security governance in the Red Sea and Gulf, the two regional seas conventions, but also institutions such as the Red Sea Council, could play a stronger role.

Whether the Combined Maritime Forces, the major US-led naval mechanism in the region, can continue to fulfil its role is currently uncertain.

What about the EU?

The EU is a strong contributor to regional maritime security through its two naval operations, Aspides and Atalanta, and significant capacity-building support, such as the Red Sea crisis project. The five EU member states that had speaking roles in Manama (Greece, Germany, France, the Netherlands and Finland) reiterated that commitment. Greece’s prime minister called for more support for Aspides, and the Dutch chief of defence argued that the EU contribution should be enhanced.

The EU should not be judged on its military contribution alone. Strengthening EU-GCC maritime security cooperation at the technical level, and assisting states such as Yemen or Eritrea, is equally vital.

Much of the regional maritime security future will hinge on what solution is found for the governance of the Strait of Hormuz. That in turn depends on whether and how the US continues the war with Iran, which is unpredictable. The current expectation is that a new cycle of escalation is coming soon.


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Keynote at ocean conference in Durban

The South African ocean research environment is thriving. A good proof was the first International Conference on Coastal, Marine, and Maritime Research, 27.-30.10.2026, Durban, South Africa organized by UNISA – a transdisciplinary gathering of ocean scholars. At the event I had the pleasure to provide a keynote in the opening panel feeding recent research on global ocean politics into the debate. In my speech I highlighted that:

The ocean is in trouble. The “Blue Acceleration” of shipping, energy, tourism and subsea cables makes us ever more dependent on the sea, and these dependencies create vulnerabilities that are increasingly exploited. War has returned to the sea, grey zone strategies are spreading, and the quadruple planetary crisis hits the ocean hard. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is only the tip of the iceberg. Yet there are glimmers of hope, including the new BBNJ agreement and growing attention at the UN.

Ocean governance is fragmented. Our research identifies four blue paradigms: blue economy, blue health, ocean justice and maritime security. They are advanced by different professional communities and often pull in different directions. Worryingly, maritime security increasingly dominates the debate, and we see a creeping militarization of the maritime domain.

Ocean observation is the backbone of governance, but it is fragmented too. Our recent mapping counted more than 15 platforms and systems in Europe alone. In the Western Indian Ocean, regional science networks, maritime security centres and naval initiatives operate side by side. Better integration means less wasted data and resources, and more promising pathways to action.

Ocean observation can pave the way to maritime peace. Observation is more than a technical task. It is a form of trust and confidence building, and it is most needed when tensions rise. This is why it mattered in the Cold War, when regional sea conventions such as HELCOM emerged. Shared observation also creates accountability: we know who does what, where and when, and we can agree on what the problems are.

That is why maritime peace must be our overarching goal. By this I mean peaceful relations between nations, between people and between humans and all the other species that live and thrive at sea. Protecting the ocean while it is being militarized and fragmented will not work. We need to build peace at sea, and better ocean observation is one of the tools to get there.


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Maritime security and peace mediation – event in Brussels

How can maritime security benefit from mediation support?

This was the key question we explored at a roundtable in Brussels that I had the pleasure to chair. The event was organized by CMI — Martti Ahtisaari Peace Foundation as part of the EU’s annual Community of Practice on Peace Mediation flagship event, 20.1.0.2026. My fellow panelists were Alison Weston, Amnah Ibraheem, Dr. Dania Thafer, and Philipp Hermes.

Key takeaways:

As tensions in regional seas are rising, ranging from the Red Sea, Black Sea, Eastern Mediterranean, and South China Sea to the more recent crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, more efforts are needed to strengthen mutual understanding around responsible behaviour at sea.

Several peace mediation actors are already heavily involved in assisting states and other actors to find common ground. The discussions around the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea, the Black Sea Grain Initiative, and mediation in Yemen are examples.

The mediation community often works with different concepts and vocabularies, yet many initiatives in maritime security, such as information sharing and maritime domain awareness, maritime security dialogues and forums, or joint exercises, closely mirror classical tools in mediation and confidence building.

A key challenge is how to safeguard technical work around marine safety, incident management, and environmental protection from political interference, while at the same time building on technical achievements to strengthen political trust.

There is much work to do for the mediation community, in particular beyond the headlines. There is a growing number of simmering maritime inter-state disputes, we need stronger norms for rising security challenges, regional mechanisms such as regional seas conventions can benefit from assistance, and civilians at sea, including seafarers and fisherfolk, require better protection.

The EU has strong portfolio of capacity building and diplomatic action on maritime security, in particular in the Western Indian Ocean, Red Sea and Gulf of Guinea, which could benefit from considering as mediation and peace making in a more straightforward way.


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Discussion on the Strait of Hormuz at events in Abu Dhabi and Geneva

The Strait of Hormuz is developing into a protracted conflict with dramatic impact on the world economy and international stability. How is the situation evolving?

Last week I had the pleasure to attend and speak at two events discussing the crisis. The annual conference of Trends in Abu Dhabi reviewed the evolving regional security context under the concept of “sustainable security”. At the third Geneva Maritime Roundtable, I co-organized with the Geneva Center for Security Policy and Zoltan Turbek, we discussed the broader strategic implications of the crisis.

Takeaways from both events:

There is growing expectation that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is far from a timely resolution, and that negotiating a governance regime for passage will take 2-3 years, if not longer.

This means that some limited shipping will go through the Strait, but that we will see ongoing attacks, with rising environmental damage and long-term food and energy insecurity.

The broader global consequences of the crisis are increasingly felt. Rising food and energy costs are one of the factors in growing instability in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region, for instance.

While Iran and Oman have reached a preliminary and time-limited agreement for organizing passage through the Strait, this does not yet have full regional and global support.

Negotiation and support efforts, such as the IMO’s evacuation plan, the UN Secretary-General’s fertilizer initiative, or the plans for protecting shipping through an international naval mission led by France and the UK, have not progressed in a meaningful way.

A key problem is that international actors are divided over the interpretation of freedom of navigation. Some countries take a strong stance, as exemplified in the EU’s recent “No fees/no tolls” pledge, while others favour pragmatic interpretations that would grant littoral states some control over passage and financial benefits from it.

Stronger support and better dialogue formats are needed to advance the discussion on the laws of naval warfare, the responsible use of new weapon technologies, and the principles of governing strategic waterways. The UN Security Council will be vital in these efforts, but broader, more inclusive forums that can integrate, for instance, the transport industry and seafarer representatives will also be needed.


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Research stay at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Stockholm

As part of our new research project “NORDSECURE: Resilience or Rupture? The Nordic Security Community in an Age of Antagonistic Threats”, I am visiting the Swedish Institute of International Affairs from October 5 to 23.

In the project, I investigate processes of maritime security community formation in Northern Europe, focusing on the shifts that have occurred since 2022. The project is funded by NordForsk – the Nordic Council of Ministers’ research cooperation.

Together with experts and practitioners, the workshop will review current developments and discuss which areas of cooperation would benefit from closer examination in the project. I will present initial insights from a mapping of the Nordic maritime security patchwork.

During the stay, I also look forward to meet with colleagues in Sweden working on the sea, practice theory and security studies.


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Briefing at UN Security Council meeting on maritime security

With a range of maritime security challenges and crises on the rise, it is encouraging to see the UN Security Council continuing its discussions on security at sea.

On Thursday, 17.9., the Kingdom of Bahrain convened an Arria-formula meeting on safe seas and freedom of navigation. More than 50 representatives took the floor, underscoring that maritime security remains high on the agenda. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz received particular attention.

I had the pleasure of addressing the Security Council during the meeting. I stressed the need to look beyond the current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and maintain a long-term strategic outlook.

Identifying platforms for dialogue on responsible behaviour at sea amid increasingly widespread grey-zone actions, and guiding the UN response in the right direction, will be key. A stronger, evidence-based, forward-looking approach is needed.


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Baltic sea security – event in Helsinki

Regional seas conventions are important building blocks in maritime security governance. In the Baltic sea the Helsinki Commission (known as HELCOM) works on scientific cooperation, the fight against marine pollution, and coast guard collaboration since 1974.

At an event titled “Baltic Green and Gray: HELCOM and the Environment-Security Nexus in the Baltic Sea Region”, co-organized by HELCOM and the Polish embassy in Finland, I had the opportunity to share my thoughts on the changing security landscape, and how Regional Seas Conventions can help us to adapt to a sea that is increasingly seeing grey zone strategies and tactics.


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PhD Defense in Stockholm

How can theories of practice shed light on the propagation of disinformation? This was the central question that Johanna Muhrbeck investigated in her PhD thesis at the Swedish Defense University.

On Friday, 11th, I had the pleasure to discuss the thesis as the ‘opponent’ during the public defense. We discussed how Ted Schatzki’s theory of practice can be used in empirical research and what fascinating messy and organic account of disinformation can be developed from there. Many congratulations to Dr. Muhrbeck for a great piece of work!


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Conference of the European International Studies Association (EISA)

The conference of EISA is the annual premier event for scholars working in the discipline of International Relations. This year’s conference was held in Lisbon, and brought more than one thousand scholars from Europe, but also from Australia, Southeast Asia, Africa and the North America together.

I had the pleasure to participate in three panels at the event focused on theories of practice and contemporary infrastructure debates. At the first roundtable we discussed Eva Johais‘ forthcoming book titled ‘Practicing Electoral Assistance’, a fascinating ethnographic exploration of a key international practice published with Michigan University Press.

I also participated in two roundtables on contemporary infrastructure studies, one of which focused on a recent forum published in International Political Sociology edited by Jutta Bakonyi. The second roundtable discussed the current draft of our book titled ” The Engineered Ocean. Global Politics in an Age of Infrastructure”, which is the main output of the Ocean Infrastructure Research Group at the University of Copenhagen.