Christian Bueger


The Price of Inattention: Somali Piracy Returns – new commentary

Somali piracy is back. In the space of just a few weeks in April and May 2026, at least five vessels have been seized off the Somali coast and nearby waters. The oil tanker Honour 25, loaded with 18,000 barrels of crude and crewed by 17 seafarers from across Asia, was hijacked off Puntland on April 21. The cargo ship Sward was taken days later near Garacad, its fifteen-person crew locked up while nine armed pirates took control. The UAE-flagged dhow Fahad-4 was seized and repurposed as a mother ship — a floating base from which pirates could range across hundreds of miles of open ocean — before being abandoned when supplies ran out. The Togo-flagged tanker Eureka was captured off Yemen and steered toward Somali shores.

The Joint Maritime Information Centre has raised its threat level to “severe.” The conditions for a prolonged crisis are in place.

None of this should surprise us. In a 2024 commentary, I warned that piracy was returning and that the governance structures built to contain it had quietly eroded. The warning signs were already clear in late 2023.

In November, pirates hijacked the Liberian-flagged Central Park off the Yemeni coast, later recaptured by the US Navy. On December 14, the Maltese-flagged MV Ruen was seized and repurposed — exactly as today’s pirates are doing — as a mother ship. In early January 2024, the MV Lila Norfolk was captured before the Indian Navy moved swiftly to retake it. The decisive response came in March 2024, when Indian special forces intercepted the Ruen, arrested 35 pirates, and freed the crew.

The threat appeared to recede. But the underlying conditions were never addressed. Pirates watched, waited, and reorganised.

Five factors explaining the return

What has changed between then and now? Five factors, layered on top of each other, have created the opening that pirate networks in Puntland are exploiting.

The first factor is the de-facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Somali piracy networks are not single-purpose criminal enterprises; they operate across multiple illicit economies, including smuggling through the strait. Denied that revenue stream, criminal financiers are redirecting toward hijacking and ransom.

Second, the broader economic fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran has simultaneously pushed up fuel and food prices across the Horn of Africa, straining coastal communities in Puntland that have historically supplied both recruits and logistical support. When people have no income and no prospects, maritime crime becomes an employer of last resort.

Third, US cuts to development assistance and reductions in UN programme funding have eliminated what limited economic alternatives existed. Counter-piracy experts have long argued that sustainable suppression requires onshore investment — in livelihoods, governance, local institutions. Strip that away, and deterrents at sea become harder to sustain.

The fourth is US disengagement. Washington has reduced its naval contribution to counter-piracy and, more damagingly, has likely scaled back the support that gave the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) and its counter-piracy task force its genuine operational bite. On paper, CMF remains a 47-nation partnership. In practice, its effectiveness has always depended on American backbone — and that backbone is being quietly pulled.

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Maritime security in Southeast Asia: Celebrating the 20th anniversary of ReCAAP

Southeast Asia has long been a region of maritime security innovation. A key driver was the maritime piracy crisis in the late 2000s.

A key regional governance mechanism originating from that time is the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP) and its associated Information Sharing Centre (ISC). ReCAAP is one of the few legally binding and well institutionalized regional maritime security frameworks that has served as a role model for arrangements such as the Djibouti Code of Conduct in the Western Indian Ocean and the Yaoundé Code of Conduct in the Gulf of Guinea.

On Friday, 13.3., I had the pleasure to participate in the symposium celebrating the 20th anniversary of ReCAAP as a panel moderator. This provided a great opportunity to revisit a comprehensive study on maritime domain awareness in Southeast Asia that I conducted in 2015. Most of the observations continue to be valid:

ReCAAP’s main function is to provide a clearing house for piracy-related information and to analyze available incident data. It’s key strength is to ensure high level of awareness and understanding of piracy in the region, even if threat levels are low. The centre’s work is moreover important in capacity building and the exchange of lessons across global ocean regions.


Maritime Ideaslab in Copenhagen

As part of an ongoing collaboration between the University of Sydney and the University of Copenhagen, I organised together with the Center for Global Criminology an ideaslab on maritime security on the 27th of June. Titled “Insecurity, Crime and Cooperation at Sea”: New Perspectives on Maritime Security” the goal of the day was to explore different ideas from international relations, security studies, and anthropology of how our thinking changes if we initiate inquiry from the sea and not the land.

The day provided an opportunity to exchange views on why and how the maritime is a site and a view point from which to explore the social and political differently. In the background was the observation that the majority of social science disciplines have focused on the land and rather ignored the sea. What has been called “sea blindness”, however, is gradually changing. Increasingly the sea is not taken as an empty void, but understood as a rich space filled with meaning, actions and life. Emerging research challenges the land/sea dichotomy and is interested in connectivity, flows and chokepoints, piracy and other forms of maritime crime, or ports and maritime infrastructures. The six presentations of the day picked up these themes respectively.

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